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Decision Analysis: Breaking News! Disagreements Remain Over Tsarist Russia’s Production-Cut Plan, Crude Oil Continues to Rally, and Gold Suddenly Accelerates Higher
Release time:
2020-04-09
During Asian trading hours on Thursday, April 9, from 07:00 to 15:00, the U.S. Dollar Index has been trading in a very narrow range, but is now showing signs of an accelerated pullback, currently hovering around 100.10. Meanwhile, international spot gold, after a moderate uptick, has suddenly picked up pace, surging nearly $14 from its intraday low to reach a high of $1,657.30 per ounce, and is continuing to climb. In addition, crude oil is also maintaining its rebound momentum.
OPEC and Russia held a meeting on Thursday in an attempt to reach agreement on record-breaking production cuts. According to sources cited later in the day, Saudi Arabia and Russia still have significant differences over how to implement the global oil-output reduction plan. This effort to stem the decline in oil prices has been complicated by mutual animosity and by the United States’ reluctance to join the initiative.
Due to pandemic-related lockdown measures worldwide, global crude oil demand has plummeted by 30%, pushing oil prices below the production costs of many oil producers—no exception even for the once-booming U.S. shale oil industry.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have indicated that their willingness to agree to a substantial production cut will depend on whether the United States and other non-OPEC+ countries also join the effort. The United States is the world’s largest crude oil producer, yet the Trump administration has shown no inclination to ask domestic producers to reduce output. This week, the U.S. Department of Energy echoed that view, stating that U.S. crude oil production has already declined even in the absence of any government intervention.
When asked whether the natural decline in U.S. oil production due to weak oil prices could be considered a production cut, Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday, “This is a completely different kind of production reduction. You’re comparing a general drop in demand with production cuts aimed at stabilizing the global market. These are entirely different concepts and cannot be put on the same footing.”
To determine how production cuts should be allocated among countries, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other producers must agree on the baseline level of output used to calculate the magnitude of the reductions. In April, Saudi Arabia raised its crude oil output to a record 12.3 million barrels per day, up from below 10 million barrels per day in March. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also increased their production.
OPEC sources say Saudi Arabia wants any production cuts to be calculated based on April output. However, Russia believes the cuts should be based on first-quarter production levels prior to the onset of the price war. “This remains the bottom line,”
It is worth noting that, following OPEC+’s video conference on Thursday, the G20 energy ministers will convene on Friday, a development that also warrants close attention.
Intraday focus and bellwether:
19:30 – The European Central Bank releases the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting.
20:30 U.S. March Producer Price Index
20:30 U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims for Last Week
22:00 U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)
22:00 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Delivers Remarks on the U.S. Economic Situation
22:00 OPEC+ Emergency Meeting
Analysis of Major Currency Trends:
Euro: At the open of Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD opened at 1.0858. Throughout the day, the pair has largely traded in a very narrow range, currently hovering around 1.0865. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD histogram remains in negative territory, while the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) is under moderate downward pressure, suggesting that downward momentum persists and the pair could continue to face selling pressure. The initial short-term support lies at 1.0800, with the first resistance level at 1.0960.
GBP: At the open of Asian trading on Thursday, GBP/USD opened at 1.2385. The pair has since staged a modest pullback and is currently trading around 1.2385. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD histogram remains unchanged in the red zone, while the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) is under mild downward pressure, suggesting that downside momentum has slightly strengthened and the trend is likely to remain bearish going forward. Short-term initial support lies at 1.2300, with initial resistance at 1.2460.
Japanese Yen: At the open of Asian trading on Thursday, USD/JPY began at 108.81. Throughout the session, the pair has been trading in a very narrow range, currently hovering around 108.95. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD histogram remains unchanged in the red zone, while the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) is trending moderately lower, suggesting that the exchange rate is likely to remain under downward pressure. The initial short-term support lies at 108.00, with the first resistance level at 109.70.
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