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Nonfarm Payrolls Ignite the Market; U.S. Gold Futures Show Short-Term Bullish Bias
Release time:
2023-02-06
Today is Monday, February 6. The front-month U.S. gold contract opened at $1,878.00 per ounce, compared with yesterday’s close of $1,877.70. Spot gold opened at $1,860.74 per ounce, versus yesterday’s close of $1,865.63; as of 11:57 Beijing time, the front-month U.S. gold contract was quoted at $1,888.60 per ounce, up 0.58%, while spot gold was trading at $1,875.89 per ounce, up 0.56%.
Domestic gold futures market:
On Monday, February 6, the main Shanghai Gold contract opened at RMB 419.34 per gram, the same as yesterday’s closing price; the Gold TD contract opened at RMB 418.50 per gram, compared with yesterday’s close of RMB 419.01 per gram.
A report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations of 189,000 and last December’s 223,000; the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest level since May 1969 and a more than 50-year low, below the market consensus of 3.6% and last December’s 3.5%; average hourly earnings rose 4.4% year on year, slightly above the expected 4.3% but lower than December’s 4.6%. The U.S. dollar index surged, while precious metals plunged sharply.
Employment data is currently one of the Federal Reserve’s key focus indicators, and a shockingly weak nonfarm payrolls report could undermine the Fed’s efforts to combat inflation. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls figures, Fed swap contracts pared bets on a rate cut in 2023, with the market now pricing in a peak policy rate of 5% by June. In response, the U.S. dollar surged by more than 100 pips, closing up 1.18% at 102.99—the highest level in three weeks.
U.S. Treasury yields surged straight after the nonfarm payrolls report, climbing more than 10 basis points during the session from 3.39% to 3.51%, nearly erasing the prior three-day decline and marking a cumulative rise of about 2 basis points for the week. On a intraday basis, yields jumped over 20 basis points, hitting their highest level since January 12; at the close of U.S. trading, they were trading around 4.29%, with a weekly gain of more than 10 basis points. Both the 10-year Treasury yield and the broader yield curve have now posted back-to-back weekly increases after three consecutive weeks of declines.
Friendly reminder: International gold has stabilized above $1,800; today’s focus is on the weekly initial jobless claims. Markets can change in an instant, so invest with caution; trading strategies are for reference only.
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